Market Commentary  11/05/19 4:49:06 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Tuesday November 5th, 2019

CORN
Corn futures closed lower for the 4th consecutive day as poor export demand and an open week for harvest activity limit the upside. Today marked the lowest close on December corn since the October 10th crop report. Speaking of reports, the USDA will issue the November report on Friday. They will update production and the 19/20 balance sheets. Analysts are expecting the corn yield to be adjusted slightly lower from last month’s 168.4 bpa. Corn export demand, currently listed at 1.900 Bln. bu., is likely to be adjusted lower. Corn exports for the U.S are off to a poor start with just 148 Mln. bu. inspected for export for the current marketing year. Brazil continues to ship corn at a record pace. It is expected, however, that Brazil exports will slow over the next few weeks, which should allow a window for U.S. exports to improve. The trade is also watching Argentina and what their newly elected Government will do with export taxes this winter. Corn harvest progress was estimated at 52% done. This compares to 41% last week and the average of 75%. This national pace is the slowest since the 25% in 2009. North Dakota is just 10% done with South Dakota at 27%. The forecast for the next week to 10 days should allow for an active harvest pace. Ethanol numbers will be out in the morning.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans finished 3 to 4 cents weaker today. Bean have seen recent support on anticipation that China and the U.S. were close to signing a Phase 1 deal. That support seemed to fade today as China is looking for a commitment from the U.S. that tariffs will be reduced. Both sides also appear to be working on a destination to sign the deal after Chile canceled the APEC convention that was to be held later this month. Soybean harvest was estimated to be 75% done versus 62% last week and the average of 87%. A few more beans are starting to get cut today as field conditions are getting fit to hold heavy equipment. Better rain chances are predicted in Brazil through the end of this week. Coverage of 80% is expected over Brazil’s growing areas. There is talk that the new Presidential regime in Argentina will raise bean export taxes once they get sworn in in December. Export taxes on Argentina beans are currently at 25%.

 
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